Our WPS Situation

Its hard to foresee 10 years into tomorrow what the situation shall be in the WPS.

I think this is so because the strategy playing out upon those disputed waters are practically beyond our effective control. We may only play a passive deterrence.

Our ability to project a credible military presence over those waters are completely preempted by the rising tensions. However, through good planning and good foresight, I am of the opinion that we can structure a defense-in-depth in the WPS that over time will allow this Republic the option of credible deterrence even in the absence of a near-par force. This in turn would afford us with better diplomatic choices.

For now, our best defense is to consolidate and to build.

Let us not forget where our strengths lay. National development and human progress are still our most reliable allies; sound economics partnered with a cohesive, inclusive, internal strategy on nation-building.

I am still of the opinion that the true nature of the issue central to the predominating crises in the WPS  is one that is economic only. If things seem to be taking a turn for the worse, it is because this basic nature is now being transformed into reasons more compatible with active warfare.

Deescalation and demilitarization are still the better of our most immediate COAs open to preserving our advantages in the current form. Artificial islands are not conferred EEZs the same as natural islands per UNCLOS but still, I am personally at a loss as to how to perceive the PRC build up as nothing else but another subtle form of aggression.

What Countries do are always more telling than what they say. 

The language of States is rule and always involves the expenditure of national power. What power does or does not do is always more real and immediate than what its representations in the diplomatic realm indicate or does not indicate. Our experience at Bajo de Masinloc and at Mischief Reef are proof of this. National power unfortunately always involves the burden of arms and all nations know it.

Conversely, our allies among the nations also express in the same manner, the will of their States - but in a way consistent with the friendship between our peoples. Imperfectly at times but never deceptively.

I can not help but interpret the PRC efforts at expansion in the WPS as aggressive. 

I wish it were otherwise. But as they say, hope is not a method. Hope is a means, yes. Any good leader's gravitas must inspire with hope precisely because of situations such as these. But a method, no. Method is what we do with hope.

Our hope is still a peaceful resolution of the WPS imbroglio - with the PRC and all across ASEAN. My own hope is to expedite resolutions in the latter first and then with the former.

Again, our best defense is to consolidate and to build.

We seem to be in the front-line of a number of things. Climate change, peace reform, and international relationships - these are not necessarily bad and war will not necessarily proceed from any of them. So we have to be wise as to what we do. Never falling short nor exceeding the spirit of the defense.

We can not take our allies for granted so we have to look into ourselves as well. 

We must see what we too may contribute not to fan the flames of war though at times this not a choice, but to help bring our world into the new age. When we are joined with our allies - in peace and in war - if we do all we can, we will stand with them honorably.

Yes, because we can.
---<--@

Dredgers deposit sand on the northern rim of the Mischief Reef, located 216 km west of Palawan, in this Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative satellite image taken on February 1, 2015 and released to Reuters on April 9, 2015. REUTERS/CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative/Digital Globe/Handout

Code of Cooperation

Can all the concerned parties agree that the implementation of a Code is -

(1) for purposes of stabilizing and demilitarizing the area of concern to pave the way for a diplomatic resolution of the points of conflict (which we shall work to discern from the area concern) -

(2) and the prevention of open hostilities upon that beleaguered sea around which all of us share a common shore?

As it is, the 9-dash line is diplomatically untenable and entirely unacceptable to my Republic and while this Code does not intend to resolve this issue, it seeks to create conditions that are better suited towards a resolution that will redound to the benefit of all parties, including the regional and the international community.

This Code of Cooperation recognizes two strategic premises -

(1) Uncertainty is our most immediate threat.

(2) War - as the agent of the last 2000 years - is our greatest enemy.

The two principal aims of this Code is - (1) to undo uncertainty and (2) to withstand War - that we may, as claimant parties together more effectively preserve the sovereign rights of our Nations and ensure freedom of navigation along the sea lanes leading in and out of the area concern.

Its primary directive is singularly and unequivocally Cooperation.

1. Distinguish economic interests and disentangle them from the political dialogue.

2. Preserve in the political dialogue a means to better express the parameters of a singularly economic concern (as distinguished from an existential demand.)

3. Observe again the SEA issue and identify these economic points of intersection (wherein the Code is preeminent and automatically applicable).

4. Identify all presently distinguishable economic points of intersection across the whole area of concern and number them systematically by count.

5. Prepare to pilot the most average issue. Agree to politically dignify regional economic cooperation where decisive national means exist - than to allow the crisis control over matters crucial to the future of our region.

6. Reach out in good will, and in smaller ways build a new consensus that is regional in scope - in behalf of the many and not in spite of them.

7. Observe and conserve the ends that favor peace over war.

8. Let us do this together in agreement and break the preponderance of conflict over the region.



In our EEZ's the primacy of decisions initial and fundamental to establishing shared responsibility and common reward for equal development will be retained by the GPH and the initiative of the Filipino people.

In return, know that we are equally and quite profoundly invested in resolutions that preclude conflicts (1) fought for lack of trust - that may have been bridged without exacting a great and terrible cost by diplomatic skill and a common, overriding focus - words spoken truthfully and sincerely always read better, and in the long-term, speak clearer to our memory than blood (2) or conflicts fought for fear of discovering what is truly human in the other - that preclude the knowledge of common ways and familiar needs by a belief that is not served in reward of learning but is nevertheless present and unconnected, floating as it were - conveniently over the reality of truths inconvenient.

For the Tao of War is deception - to undertake the resolution we desire in this Code require us to emerge from this Tao - and speak plainly - to make the circuitous straight - in the language of true things.

The Art of War constitutes victory over War - which is Peace over War - Peace as the craft of all human Nations. And the Tao of  Peace is the Truth - therefore, within this Code we shall speak sincerely only of true things - restrain and contain our politics within our borders and reach out to the other in the truth.






Some initial recommendations: Approach ASEAN partners first - Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei simultaneously. Consult with Thailand and Cambodia on the Preah Vihear issue and seek to understand their lessons learned. Offer advice and support to help Thailand obtain political stability - within the framework of ASEAN, according to the level of bilateral good will Thailand will accept. Then approach the PRC with the ROC together. Explore if applicable to the East China Sea issue.

Personal reflection: To be honest, it is very difficult for me to complete this Code. First of all, I do not have all the information I should like to know to be able to support my larger premises with factual evidence in their details. What I do have are entirely from open sources as well as my internal guidance which is profoundly inclined toward the prevention of any outbreaks of War in our region.

This Code therefore, is an extension of my larger efforts to promote Peace and Peace reform through this blog - in preparation for the next age of our world.

Finally, let this Code and its vision be a work in progress. Let us stop hating each other and start looking after each other, dreaming together as Nations this time.

God bless the PRC and the ROC, my Republic, our ASEAN, Japan, Korea, the Pacific-rim region, and all Countries involved in the task of re-building and re-balancing for Peace.

Mabuhay po tayong lahat!
---<--@

Our Divided Pond

"While the tree craves calm, the wind will not subside." This is a proverb the PRC media frequently quoted last year when commenting on the rifts between the PRC and the Philippines over the South China Sea.



Our only fault is not having a credible air-sea military deterrent to enforce our core national interests concerns within our territorial waters as well as the primacy of our economic interests within our own EEZ's alongside our international legal obligation to keep these outlying waters secure from piracy and free from lawlessness.

I always come back to this weakness in our own national defense when I ponder on the bilateral equation between the PRC and the GPH.

We did not unilaterally draw these lines on the map, we accepted them from the community of nations. We accepted them along with the rights and responsibilities that our nation must undertake along with them.

We did not harass the Chinese fishermen (PRC) in Scarborough shoal in April of last year, we were enforcing our maritime laws as we should - not because "we can" but because as a Republic, we must.

After all what is a Republic without law but a sham against the people and a lie against the nation it is commanded by God to shepherd.

But what is law without the truth? For the former arises out of the latter and drives it constantly against its limits, not to destroy it but to make it perfect.

But what is the truth? It is - in its ultimate form - certainly not a thing that Man may create for himself, else all law become void and the universe itself unmade.

It seems to me that when the truth is made to be arbitrary, as it is with Beijing's insistence on keeping all claimants cornered, regardless of the avenues of international legal remedy, it all will boil down in the end to raw force and in this regard, the time is late.

We have to accept responsibility for what we presently lack and build upon it in a way that is befitting the necessary and the real. And we must do this not for anything else but our own true sense of well regard for this Republic undertaking of Country of ours and our love for our nation as a whole.

We have to be firm in the right. Defend where we can and get our own act together as one Republic whole. The elections this year affords our people a chance to act upon our national longings, one of them being to live in the safety and security not only of our own peace but also with the peace of the nations in our region, their strength added to our own and ours with them.

We do not want to make an enemy of the PRC. I myself as a citizen of this Republic do not believe in enemies, for as a nation, it is my conviction that we must only believe in friends and potential friends. Not because we are weak for this is not a time to be weak. Now is a time for strength.

We must always be ready to answer to questions regarding matters of peace, whether they are of our own creation or is a thing created for us by circumstances within our world or through the dynamics involved in our necessary relations with other nations for we have constitutionally renounced the use of war along with all its potential for abuse.

This is not to say that we will not defend ourselves, this is to say that we must make it clear that our heart lies only in our defense and that we are answerable to the answers we as a nation have determined to allow for ourselves about these matters.

The real question is, has the PRC already made an enemy of us? Who is the tree and who is the wind?

Where there are more questions than answers, the truth is valued. When there are more answers than questions, there is no certainty.

The Code of Conduct, as I foresee it, being a document largely defined by the economic nature of the issue as regards the South China Sea-West Philippine Sea, must answer for our region - the question of wealth - is not peace and friendship between the nations in our region a form of wealth in and of itself?

Did not the Chinese also say that the angry can be made to be happy again but the dead can not be brought back to life? Indeed, not unlike this saying, I also place a high value on human life. This is why I place a high value on peace. For in its most complete and absolute form peace is truly over war.

Never must this issue take away our common hopes for a better Asia and from our Asia, a better world - for all nations... dreaming together this time.
---<--@

War is not the test,
O nations of the children of Mankind -
war is the tutor!

Peace is the test -
and to pass this test brings success.